Certified Supply Chain Professional (CSCP) Practice Exam

What are the two major types of qualitative forecasting?

1. Statistical analysis and machine learning

2. Judgemental/expert judgement and Delphi method

3. Time series and associative methods

4. Historical review and predictive analytics

The correct answer is: Judgemental/expert judgement and Delphi method

Qualitative forecasting is rooted in subjective judgment and insights rather than relying solely on historical data. Among the choices provided, the two major types of qualitative forecasting are indeed judgmental/expert judgement and the Delphi method. Judgmental or expert judgment involves insights from individuals or groups who have experience or knowledge of the subject matter. This type of forecasting can be particularly useful when data is scarce or when there are sudden changes or uncertainties that historical data cannot effectively address. Experts can provide their opinions based on their understanding of trends, market conditions, and other influencing factors. The Delphi method is a structured process that gathers expert opinions through multiple rounds of questionnaires. The goal is to reach a consensus forecast by allowing experts to revise their opinions based on the feedback from others in subsequent rounds. This method effectively mitigates biases and helps to refine predictions as experts have a chance to consider the insights of their peers. These approaches are inherently psychological and subjective, making them distinct from quantitative methods such as statistical analysis or time series methods, both of which rely on numerical data and historical trends. Thus, the combination of expert judgment and the structured process of the Delphi method precisely encapsulates the core basis of qualitative forecasting.